A former official in the Clinton administration says that President Trump still has a 20% chance of winning re-election, despite the media having already called the race for Biden.
Graham Allison served under Clinton as an Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans from 1993 to 1994.
In an article entitled ‘Donald Trump’s Stealthy Road to Victory’, Allison breaks with the legacy media consensus that Trump’s legal challenge is completely futile by giving the president a one in five chance of victory.
“Without disagreeing with the conventional wisdom about the final tally when all the legal votes are counted, I believe the current consensus is missing the fact that Trump has a second, viable stealthy road to victory,” writes Allison, adding that the fight will go on until at least January 6 when “slates of electoral college members are opened in Washington.”
After that, Allison predicts that the decision on the result will go all the way to the Supreme Court, where Republicans have a 5-4 advantage.
Noting that a contested election structurally favors Republicans, Allison asserts, “I project a 20% chance of a contested election outcome leading to a victory for President Trump.”
“Both the words of the 12th Amendment, and historical precedent offer a credible, stealthy, winding road that could lead to Trump’s victory and a second term. Or as the saying goes: the opera ain’t over till the fat lady sings,” he concludes.
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