Voters in Ohio’s 12th congressional district are set to cast ballots in a race that will reveal if Republicans can maintain control of the House in November – while voters in four other states face contentious primaries.
President Trump traveled to the 12th district, which spans an area north and east of Columbus, last weekend to speak at a campaign rally for state Senator Troy Balderson, who is locked in a tighter-than-expected race with Democrat Danny O’Connor to replace Representative Pat Tiberi, who resigned in January.
Trump carried the 12th district, which has been represented by a Republican since 1983, by approximately 11 percent.
The unexpected closeness of the race in Ohio’s 12th district is reminiscent of the recent special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th district, where Democrat Conor Lamb narrowly defeated Republican Rick Saccone in a district President Trump carried by nearly 20 percent.
If Democrats are able to pull off a win in Ohio, it will serve as a warning for Republicans running in districts that are less Republican-leaning than the 12th district, potentially putting Republican control of the House at risk.
In Kansas, Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach has received the endorsement of President Trump in his campaign for governor. Kobach has been locked in a tight contest with the state’s current governor, Jeff Colyer, who is vying for a full term after he was elevated to replace former Governor Sam Brownback, who resigned to become Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom.
Looking to position themselves as kingmakers in the Democratic Party, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez traveled to Kansas to campaign for labor attorney Brent Welder, who is locked in a competitive six-way primary to challenge Republican Representative Kevin Yoder in the state’s 3rd district.
The national party, meanwhile, is supporting Sharice Davids, fearing Welder will be unable to pull off enough moderate voters to defeat Yoder.
In addition, they also campaigned for James Thompson, who is expected to win his primary and face Representative Ron Estes in the state’s 4th district. The race would be a rematch of last year’s special election, which Estes won by a narrower-than-expected margin of six percent.
Looking to replicate her upset victory over incumbent Representative Joe Crowley, Ocasio-Cortez has also traveled to Missouri’s 1st district, where incumbent Representative Lacy Clay is facing a strong challenge from the left in activist Cori Bush.
The Democratic Party’s intra-party conflict will be on further display in Michigan’s gubernatorial race, where Sanders-backed leftist Abdul El-Sayed is facing establishment-backed candidate Gretchen Whitmer, a former state Senate Majority Leader.
The race to replace term-limited Republican Governor Rick Snyder is viewed as a toss-up by most observers.
The Republican primary to determine who will challenge Senator Debbie Stabenow, however, is no less contentious. John James, an Iraq War veteran, was recently endorsed by President Trump over businessman Sandy Pensler.
The Democratic Party’s roadmap to retake control of the House will run through Washington state, where Republican Representative David Reichert’s retirement leaves the state’s 8th district a prime pickup opportunity.
Democrats are also eying the 5th district, where House GOP Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers is all but certain to face a tough challenge from former WSU Chancellor Lisa Brown.
